This morning gives us an opportunity to review the UK economic experience over the pandemic and also to look ahead, as it is the season or at least day for economic growth ( GDP) revisions. In terms of the level the news was good.
The level of GDP is now 1.5% below where it was pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) at Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019, revised from the previous estimate of 2.1% below, because of upward revisions to growth in 2020;
So we are in terms of the level of GDP some 0.6% better off than we previously thought. The main player here is that 2020 was not as bad as we had thought it was with every quarter revised higher and the last one by 0.4%. That tends to be the nature of sharp economic contractions which is that they get over recorded at the time and then reduced by revisions. The detail shows we know much less about smaller businesses than many try to claim.