Eric Hickman discusses the recent signal to buy 30-year bonds.
A technical indicator with a reliable history is signaling that 30-year Treasury yields will soon decline.
A relative strength index (RSI) can be measured for any price series and represents how much and frequency gains are occurring versus losses. The index is used as a contrary or turning-point indicator. After periods of strong, persistent selling, buying is expected and vice versa.
It isn’t a complicated calculation. The RSI takes the average price change of days with gains compared to the average price change of days with losses over the last x days. This is converted into an oscillator that can take any position between 0 and 100. When prices (or yields) are rising fast and persistently, the oscillator will approach 100; when selling occurs with lower prices, it will approach 0. The oscillator spends most of its time in the middle, say between 30 and 70. Extreme readings (close to 0 or 100) happen rarely. We can study these extremes historically to see how useful the index is at identifying major turning points in markets.