UK GDP shows us heading for stagflation

This morning and these days it is early in the morning since the switch to the 7 am announcement, brought a minor dose of bad news for the UK.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed in July 2021, growing by 0.1% compared with 1.0% growth in June 2021. This is the sixth consecutive month of GDP growth, as coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions continued to ease to varying degrees in EnglandScotland and Wales.

Part of the reason I say minor is that with our stagflation theme we were concerned about a slow down and we had already seen the fall in Retail Sales. In addition there was the NHS app pingdemic from back then.

However it was another bad month for the expectations of the Markit PMI as shown by fxstreet.

 

The UK services sector activity expanded more than expected in July, the final report from IHS Markit confirmed this Monday.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised up to 59.6 in July versus 57.8 expected and a 57.8 – last month’s flash reading.

So quite a surging rate of growth and the overall one for the economy was 59.2 so strong growth. It would appear those who forecast 0.6% growth for the UK economy this morning were asleep on its previous misfires and followed it.

Breaking it down

Let us start with the apparently rampaging services sector.

Monthly services output remained flat at 0.0% between June 2021 and July 2021

As you can see that is quite a fail for the PMI and as it is around 80% of the UK economy we are well on our way to explaining the July result. Perhaps it looks at these areas.

Information and communication was the main contributor to services, mainly because of a 2.8% growth in computer programming, consultancy and related activities. Financial services also contributed positively to services, mainly because of a 2.1% growth in financial service activities (not including insurance and pensions).

But not so much at these.

Professional, scientific and technical activities fell by 2.3% in July 2021 and was the largest negative contributor to growth in services. Five of its eight sub-industries contracted in July 2021, with output in advertising and market research falling by 7.3% after an exceptionally strong June 2021, and a fall of 7.3% in legal activities.

I guess you have already figured out the reason for the fall in legal services.

 

The drop in legal activities and real estate activities on a fee or contract basis (which fell by 10.4%) reflects the partial end to the Stamp Duty holiday period in England and Northern Ireland from 1 July 2021.

Also there was the fall in Retail Sales plus I note there is quite a bit going on in this sector.

Output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.3% in July 2021, its first fall since January 2021 when it fell by 8.3%. Most of this fall is because of a 2.5% fall in retail trade (mainly because of a fall in food and fuel sales), partially offset by a 72.5% growth in travel agency, tour operator and other related reservation services (growing from historically low levels), and a 15.1% growth in sports activities, amusement and recreation activities.

As you can see there have been some wild swings which actually bring the total into question. When you have sub-sectors moving by 15% let alone 72.5% then a total which only moves by 0.1% has to be not only within the margin of error but well within it That theme continues if we look at the other side of the coin.

Arts, entertainment and recreation activities saw strong growth in July 2021 of 9.0%.

Production

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By contrast this put in a strong performance both in relative and absolute terms.

Production output increased by 1.2% in July 2021, with mixed growth across the four sectors. This follows a fall in production of 0.7% in June 2021.

We can now look at another story of two halves with the good bit being the end of a maintenance period in the North Sea.

Mining and quarrying contributed most to production’s increase, as it grew by 21.9% in July 2021. This strong growth mainly reflects the reopening of an oil field production site, which was previously temporarily closed for planned maintenance.

However it is still well below last year.

Despite this growth, output in the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas remains low by historical standards, with July 2021 output 19.1% below its July 2020 level.

I thought I would take more of perspective and here is spglobal looking at the data up until May.

UK crude production has been recovering since 2014, but remains below half of levels at the turn of the millennium.

If the record gas prices continue then North Sea Gas is going to look a lot more attractive. Obviously if it is in the UK sector but also if it is in friendly Norway. I realise this is not official policy but at some point governments will be forced to come down from their present fantasies.

Manufacturing

This was quiet which in some respects is a result after fears about the car industry.

The manufacturing sector remained broadly flat in July 2021, after five consecutive months of growth, with anecdotal evidence from businesses responding to the Monthly Business Survey suggesting staff shortages (including COVID-19 self-isolation requirements) as a challenge to production.

So the NHS pingdemic was in play here and probably elsewhere. Also you may be surprised to see the strongest sector which is from a low base.

The largest positive contribution to manufacturing growth came from the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, which grew by 11.4% as reports of microchip shortages disrupting car production eased in July 2021.

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Public Health England: Virus levels the same in vaccinated people vs. those who aren’t

Public Health England (PHE) has suggested that vaccinated people who catch the B16172 delta variant of the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) are as infectious as unvaccinated people. The agency said “initial findings … indicate that levels of [the SARS-CoV-2] virus in those who become infected with [the] delta [variant] having already been vaccinated may be similar to levels found in unvaccinated people.” First identified in India, the B16172 delta variant became the dominant strain in England.

PHE noted its observation in an Aug. 6 technical briefing, basing it on National Health Service Test and Trace data since June 14. It found that average and median cycle threshold (CT) values were almost the same for both vaccinated an unvaccinated individuals. Unvaccinated people registered a median CT value of 17.8, while people inoculated with two COVID-19 vaccine doses registered a value of 18.0.

CT values refer to the number of cycles needed to boost the viral signal in a sample used in a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test.

The briefing said: “This means that while vaccination may reduce an individual’s overall risk of being infected, once they are infected – there is limited difference in viral load (and CT values) between those who are vaccinated and unvaccinated.” It added that given the similar CT values between unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals, “this suggests limited difference in infectiousness.”

Furthermore, the Aug. 6 PHE report pointed out that “the average CT values for delta cases … have decreased” – which meant average viral loads became higher. This is a known pattern in an increasing epidemic, PHE said. It was previously seen when the original SARS-CoV-2 strain was no longer prevalent.

PHE’s findings aligned with a study by researchers from the state of Wisconsin. The preprint of the study posted July 31 in medRxiv said that there was “no difference in viral loads” between unvaccinated individuals and people who experience breakthrough COVID-19 infections.

The Wisconsin researchers pointed out that individuals with vaccine breakthrough infections “frequently test positive with viral loads consistent with the ability to shed infectious viruses.” They warned: “If vaccinated individuals become infected with the delta variant, they may be sources of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to others.”

Vaccines are contributing to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Aside from the B16172 delta variant, PHE also raised the alarm bells on the lambda variant. Some news sources used the lambda variant to refer to two different variants – the C37 variant first found in Peru and the recent B1621 strain first reported in Colombia. (Related: THE SCAMDEMIC NEVER ENDS: Fauci says another variant of COVID “worse that Delta” has surfaced with endless lockdowns and restrictions sure to follow.)

PHE said in an Aug. 6 risk assessment paper that “based on preliminary laboratory evidence,” vaccination and immunity from previous COVID-19 infection may be less effective against the Colombian B1621 strain. However, the agency noted that “there is no evidence” of the Colombian strain outcompeting the delta variant and the possibility of it being more transmissible “appears unlikely.”

The paper claimed that the B1621 strain may evade both and vaccine-induced immunity and natural immunity from previous COVID-19 infections based on evidence. “Laboratory findings for [B1621] are so far similar to the [South African] beta [variant], which raises the possibility that it may manifest similar immune escape properties,” the paper said.

Meanwhile, a preprint of a study posted July 28 in bioRxiv said the Peruvian C37 strain exhibited higher infectivity and immune resistance. The researchers from multiple Japanese universities said two mutations in the strain’s spike protein – the T76I and L452Q mutations – were responsible for its increased infectivity.

The scientists noted: “Acquiring at least two virological features – increased viral infectivity and evasion from antiviral immunity – is pivotal to the [virus’s] efficient spread and transmission in the human population.”

Many scientists claimed that instead of protecting populations from SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 vaccines have been responsible for spreading different variants of the pathogen. Cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough was among these experts critical of mass vaccination.

During a July 22 interview with Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN) President Del Bigtree, he mentioned the role of the Sinovac Biotech vaccine in the appearance of new COVID-19 variants. The vaccine made by the Chinese company was used in a number of countries.

“In the case of India, it was the use of the Sinovac vaccine that really prompted the emergence of the delta variant. Now we’re seeing Sinovac again being the stimulus for the emergence of the [C37] lambda variant out of Peru. So mass vaccination, as opposed to targeted vaccination, is in a sense creating the problem of this immune escape of the virus,” McCullough said. (Related: CDC flip-flops AGAIN, now admits “fully vaccinated” people are spreading COVID-19.)

Vaccines.news has more articles about COVID-19 breakthrough infections despite mass vaccination efforts.

Sources include:

TheEpochTimes.com

Assets.Publishing.Service.gov.uk 1 [PDF]

MedRxiv.org

Assets.Publishing.Service.gov.uk 2 [PDF]

BioRxiv.org

ChildrensHealthDefense.eu

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Nigel Farage’s Former Brexit Party Loses Bank Account

It’s a private company and they can do whatever you want to anyone, right? Nigel Farage’s former Brexit Party (currently the Reform Party) had its bank account shut down, and party leader Richard Tice immediately said that private companies can do whatever because reasons.

As you can see, this stupid loyalty to anarcho-capitalist ideology is not specific to the American “right”, i.e. it’s not exclusively an American thing. These people keep following a failed ideology pushed by the likes of Murray Rothbard et al, an ideology they’ve never benefitted from, and an ideology used by the establishment to push their brutal Marxist agenda.

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UK dials down coronavirus app as self-isolating workers cause severe labor shortage leading to empty shelves at grocery stores

The U.K. government has dialed down the National Health Service (NHS) COVID-19 app to avoid a labor shortage caused by self-isolating essential workers.

Following pressure from trade unions and businesses, Downing Street said the app will now instruct fewer people to self-isolate. It added that the NHS COVID-19 app will now instruct close contacts of COVID-positive Britons to quarantine themselves two days before a positive result – instead of the earlier five days.

The app sent out almost 700,000 alerts in England and Wales during the week to July 21. This strained many businesses whose workers were “pinged” by the NHS app to self-isolate. This represented the higher number sent by the app on record.

U.K. Health Secretary Sajid Javid stated that the adjustment aimed to reduce the impact of self-isolation notices but still protect those at risk. “We want to reduce the disruption that self-isolation can cause for people and businesses, while ensuring we’re protecting those most at risk from [the Wuhan coronavirus.] This update to the app will help ensure that we are striking the right balance,” he said, stressing that it is still important for people notified by the app to isolate to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

The U.K. Department of Health and Social Care nevertheless said the update “does not impact the sensitivity of the app or change the risk threshold, and will result in the same number of high-risk contacts being advised to self-isolate.” It insisted that the app “continues to play a crucial role in breaking chains of transmission, preventing hospitalizations and saving lives.”

U.K. Health Security Agency Chief Executive Dr. Jenny Haries said the NHS COVID-19 app has saved thousands of lives, adding that it was “the simplest, easiest and fastest way to find out” if people were exposed to the virus. “[I] strongly encourage everyone, even those fully vaccinated, to continue using the app,” she told the BBC. (Related: England’s contrived “Freedom Day” overshadowed by “Ping-Demic” food shortages and near-collapse of food infrastructure.)

The tweaks to the app came as the “ping-demic” impacted British industries

The tweaks came as Downing Street earlier said that there were no plans to adjust the NHS COVID-19 app. However, it walked back on its statement to bring the “ping-demic” under control.

Junior Shadow Minister for Social Care Liz Kendall criticized the British government’s sudden change of stance. “This is yet another COVID U-turn from ministers at a time when the public [needs] clarity and certainty – not chaos and mixed messages. It’s shambolic and they must get a grip.” Kendall also accused the government of “leaving hundreds of thousands of people forced to self-isolate every day” instead of driving COVID-19 cases down.

The British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) welcomed the change to the app. According to its research, up to 1,000 pubs had been forced to close temporarily as workers were pinged by the app to self-isolate. BBPA CEO Emma McClarkin said: “On average, each pub forced to temporarily close due to staff being pinged costs 9,500 British pounds (US$13,199) in lost trade per week and our larger venues much, much more at a critical time in their recovery.

However, the British trade union Unite said the change to the NHS COVID-19 app does not go far enough. It reiterated its earlier call for workers in the automotive and steel industries to be exempted from self-isolation rules. Unite Assistant General Secretary for Manufacturing Steve Turner said: “The costs are horrific to workers and [industries] alike, and there are real concerns that work will move overseas or even that steel furnaces could be damaged – which would be devastating for this industry.”

Following criticism by Unite and other entities, the British government launched a new scheme for workers in England. Under the new program, workers in key sectors would be required to undergo COVID-19 tests daily instead of isolating themselves. These included police officers, firefighters and U.K. Border Force officers. Transport and freight staff, supermarket depot workers and those working in food factories were also eligible under the testing scheme.

The daily testing scheme meant workers in England pinged by the NHS app will be able to continue working if they show negative test results each day, regardless of their vaccination status. British Home Secretary Priti Patel said daily testing would keep frontline teams safe while they continued to serve the public and communities. (Related: Tens of thousands of UK coronavirus tests rendered invalid.)

Pandemic.news has more articles about the impact of COVID-19 self-isolation on the U.K.’s workforce.

Sources include:

TheEpochTimes.com

BBC.com 1

BBC.com 2

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London protest: Thousands march in fury over lockdown and vaccine passports

THOUSANDS of protestors have gathered in central London this afternoon to object to the continued lockdown measures.

In videos and photos posted to social media, tens of thousands of protestors were pictured gathering and marching without face masks on, it has been claimed. The protestors, holding banners and chanting “freedom”, are marching through central London. Those in attendance are protesting against coronavirus lockdowns and vaccine passports. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has yet to respond to the protests. Piers Corbyn, the older brother of former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, has been spotted at the protest. 

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Swiss drugmaker Roche searching for new site to trial Covid-19 pill as virus prevalence in UK falls

The pharmaceutical giant Roche has said the low levels of Covid-19 prevalence in the UK have made it hard to find enough participants to finish their trial of an ingestible treatment for the disease.

Speaking on Wednesday, Bill Anderson, the head of Roche’s pharmaceutical division, told Reuters that it was taking longer than expected to finish their trial. The company’s chairman Christoph Franz had previously indicated results might be available before the end of March.

“There’s just simply not enough patients to enrol… with the speed we were hoping for,” Anderson stated, noting that the UK’s strict lockdown and fast vaccination program had seen infection rates plummet in the country in recent months.

“That’s been one of the challenges since the beginning of the pandemic: you set up sites where there’s a lot of Covid, and then by the time you’re ready to enrol, the pandemic has moved somewhere else and you’re sort of chasing it,” he noted, but did not disclose any candidates for new trial locations. 

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Coronavirus UK: Boris Johnson DROPS pub passports – Court case filed against the government

Boris Johnson DROPS Covid passports for pubs as ministers warn certificates for public events might not be ready until Autumn

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9433971/amp/Coronavirus-UK-Boris-Johnson-DROPS-pub-passports.html?__twitter_impression=true

“Passports not ready.” Bullshit. Real reason here?

I can now confirm, that within hours of receiving our evidence, Judge Swift decided our case was URGENT. Matt Hancock has to file a response by 10am Tuesday, with no concessions for the Bank Holiday..

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